I’m from Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, where plenty of Trump signs and MAGA bumper sticks dot the landscape. Biden isn’t winning over enough voters in the battleground states and things look bleak for him in Pennsylvania. As Patrick Healy explains in the New York Times, “In the springtime of re-election years, many voters decide whether they’re open or closed to another term for the guy in office. Call it the incumbent threshold decision. In previous cycles, many voters gave up on Donald Trump, George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter by this time during re-election — those incumbents never held sustained leads in the polls after that.”
“When this spring began, on March 19, Trump had a polling average lead of 2 percentage points over Biden nationally, according to Real Clear Politics. As spring ends, Trump leads by about 1 percent. I think a successful spring for Biden would have had him ahead. Even more worrisome for Biden: Trump began the spring with leads in the six key swing states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. After months of Democratic campaigning in those states, Biden hasn’t taken the lead in any of them. Trump’s lead has held pretty steady in Nevada, Arizona and Georgia. Biden has made up enough ground in Michigan and Wisconsin to be razor-close to Trump. There hasn’t been polling recently in Pennsylvania; the late-May polling average had Trump ahead by 2.3 points.”
Here’s more context: – Biden has solid fund-raising, and he would win if he prevails in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. – Biden isn’t hammering home his message that Trump is a convicted felon. – Many undecided and independent voters see Biden as ineffective on the economy, immigration and foreign wars. – Biden looks elderly–too old for a second term.
Photo from New Media